e-Literate

Present is Prologue

Category: Ed Tech

The “Ed Tech” category includes posts about educational technology products themselves, including LMSs and other learning platforms, adaptive learning and other digital curricular materials products, learning analytics, and educational apps of all types. It also includes technical aspects of ed tech products, especially interoperability.

  • Notes on EDUCAUSE 2018

    Notes on EDUCAUSE 2018

    I recently finished three weeks of travel to ed tech conferences – Online Learning in Toronto, WCET in Portland, and EDUCAUSE in Denver. Given the size of EDUCAUSE and its history of being the place to see the greatest number of vendors in one location, that conference is a good trigger to cover general ed tech market news.

    Official photo of EDUCAUSE exhibit hall from promotional tweet
    Source: https://twitter.com/educause/status/1034810456584740864

    EDUCAUSE By the Numbers

    John O’Brien, president and CEO of EDUCAUSE, described in his welcoming speech and in an interview how this was the largest conference yet for the organization, with more than 8,000 registered attendees including more than 3,000 first-timers. I asked O’Brien about the changing and more crowded environment for ed tech conferences – with WCET, ASU/GSV, Online Learning, various vendor conferences, SXSWedu, and others – and he indicated that more is better. In other words, EDUCAUSE does not see a need to change due to competition, as there is room for multiple conferences with different emphases.

    The direction that EDUCAUSE is going can be seen in O’Brien’s recent article “Strategic IT: What Got Us Here Won’t Get Us There”. In this view, technology is integrated, so the organization and conference must bring in decision-making from outside the IT organization.

    To fully realize the value of information technology as the strategic asset it is, we must embrace strategic IT. What got us here, a remarkable utility mindset, will no longer suffice. Instead, higher education leaders must consider the role and placement of information technology in the strategic fabric of their institutions.

    Based on interviews with O’Brien as well as multiple sponsoring vendors on the exhibit hall, these are the key numbers:

    • Total attendance of 8,018
    • Of these almost 5,900 opted to share registration info, implying that 2,100 opted out of sharing info (and I assume that the vast majority of the 2,100 are from higher ed schools)
    • Just over 3,000 were first-time attendees
    • Almost 2,700 were from vendors, both as sponsors / exhibitors and paying attendees to walk around; another 200 or so were from foundations, media, associations, and other organizations
    • Therefore 5,000 – 5,100 attendees were from institutions of higher ed, with more than 300 of those attendees from outside the US

    In 2017:

    • Total attendance of 8,000
    • More than 1,600 first-time attendees
    • More than 6,900 opted to share registration info

    There is somewhat of a disconnect, however, in that the exhibit hall certainly didn’t feel crowded or busy, at least compared to previous years. Most vendors I talked to described traffic at booths somewhat healthy but not at a peak for this conference. I also do not know why the registration list from last year had more 1,000 more than this year. I have asked EDUCAUSE for commentary or clarification on the attendance numbers; while their PR firm did respond to my email, I have not received any updates on the numbers other than saying “it cannot be assumed that the opt-outs were from higher education schools”.

    One other disconnect was noted by Josh Kim at Inside Higher Ed in his post about the EDUCAUSE Top Ten IT Issues list released at the conference.

    Curious About the Lack of Overlap with the ELI 2019 Key Issues in Teaching and Learning List:

    Perhaps the existence of the ELI Key Issues list exempts the EDUCAUSE mothership from putting teaching and learning related issues on its list. I still read the lack of teaching and learning issues as curious. How could it be that academic transformation is everywhere in the ELI community, and nowhere to be found in the IT list? Maybe the EDUCAUSE list should have one entry that says “see the ELI list.”

    I see the same issue where the EDUCAUSE “mothership” in many ways does not directly speak to teaching and learning issues, which is confusing given the direction the organization is taking. When I asked John O’Brien about this situation, he indicated that they have been increasing their emphasis on T&L issues at the leadership level. The answer is not that EDUCAUSE wants to point all T&L issues to ELI, but the integration is a work in progress, I suppose.

    Big Tech Companies

    Moving beyond the numbers, what struck me the most was the increasing presence of Big Tech at the conference. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, IBM were all there in force, with an increased focus on education as a vertical market. Only Apple was missing.

    The question, especially for Google, is how much they plan to fully jump into higher education as opposed to dabbling in the market with a ‘let’s see how this tech gets used’ approach of the past. I get conflicting messages in this regard, at least for Google. For example, I asked a sales lead in the booth about Google Classroom and whether they plan to push this into the higher ed LMS market. He answer was clear that Classroom belongs in the K-12 market, but in higher ed they have no need to try and displace Canvas, Blackboard, D2L, Moodle, et al. For higher ed, they plan to use Course Kit, their set of tools integration G Suite with the campus LMS, to incrementally get more exposure. When I talked to one well-known university CIO, however, he said that Google is responding to his push to fully jump in and even expand Classroom usage as an LMS alternative. Don’t treat this as a full description of the issues but rather one example of mixed messages.

    Microsoft and Amazon, however, are really expanding their higher ed solutions and market presence.

    In years past, EDUCAUSE exhibit hall was dominated by the ERP companies plus Blackboard and the publishers. In the ERP space, Oracle, Workday, Ellucian, and Jenzabar had large booths and aggressive marketing presence. Yes, I mention Jenzabar in that group, at least in terms of conference booth and marketing presence. Expect more on that story in the coming months.

    Moodle Presence

    For the first time, Moodle HQ had their own booth at the conference rather than solely relying on Moodle Partners for messaging. In fact there was a mini-Moodle alley at the left side of the hall, with eThink, Moodle HQ, and Moonami all together. This marketing move is significant after last year’s funding round of $6 million for Moodle HQ and this year’s news of Blackboard / Moodlerooms leaving the Moodle Partner program. I don’t know how far this new marketing spend will go in influencing LMS decision-making at colleges and universities, but it is significant that the world’s largest LMS is now spending money to raise awareness of what Moodle currently offers and what it can be.

    Additional Notes

    • If you ever wondered how many 20-somethings you could possibly fit in one large conference booth, I hope you visited Splunk to see the answer.
    • Cybersecurity – both in terms of protection / audit services as well as content for training and certificates – was another area with increased emphasis this year.
    • In a strange way, video is becoming a crowded market (again). Lecture capture, streaming, synchronous collaboration tools, etc. Where did this new market investment come from?
    • At the booth with the punching bag game, I should have invited 35-year-old Phil to be competitive with the eThink and Moodle guys. At least, I’ll pretend that this was the issue.

    Update 11/21: Clarified response status from EDUCAUSE at their request.

  • Instructure Announces a New CEO

    On August 5th, I wrote,

    Assuming [new Instructure President Dan Goldsmith’s] trial period goes well, I think it likely that he will be promoted to the top job within 9 months. The reason I pick this time frame is anything too close to InstructureCon 2019 poses the danger of being a distraction during the most important event of the year for the company.

    Today at 4:00 PM ET, the company announced,

    Instructure, Inc.(NYSE: INST), a leading software-as-a-service (SaaS) technology company in education, learning, and employee development, today announced that the Board of Directors has appointed Instructure President, Dan Goldsmith, as Chief Executive Officer, effective January 1, 2019. On that date, Josh Coates will transition from his role as CEO to Executive Chairman of the Board. Goldsmith has also been appointed to the Board.

    So the transition actually happened a little less than three months after Mr. Goldsmith’s Big Top début. Instructure is not wasting any time.

    In my original post, I wrote about Dan’s coming on board as part of a larger set of changes that the company is going through. I referred to the company as entering “those awkward teenage years” because it is in the beginning of a transition to becoming something else:

    Instructure’s unbelievably long age of innocence may finally be coming to an end. That doesn’t mean that it is going to fail or to become the next EdTech company that everybody hates. It does mean that it is beginning to go through some changes, that some of those changes will be awkward and hard, and that the company will eventually grow up to become somewhat different than it has been. Not necessarily better or worse. But necessarily different.

    We tend to write a lot about the short to medium term changes—the “adolescence” in this case—because one of our primary audiences is the group of folks at colleges and universities who may see changes in the behavior of a vendor that they depend on and need to understand the drivers behind those changes in order to make good decisions for their institutions. And those changes, in turn, are at least partially driven by finance and markets and other business stuff. As I write this post, we are less than an hour away from Instructure’s quarterly earnings call. Many of the people listening to that call are concerned, not because the company is in financial free fall, but because it might not grow as quickly in the next couple of years—or even in the next couple of months—as it has in the past.

    The pathology of investor short-term thinking is, unfortunately, part of what university folks need to understand in order to understand the behavior of these companies. That said, while we’re going to continue writing about the short and medium term, Phil and I are going to take a step back from the serpent-eating-its-tail obsession with quarterly performance and write some pieces about the long-term prospects for the LMS, both as a product category and as business. Neither of those aspects are a static as they appear to be. In fact, while some of the behaviors of the various providers are motivated by those short-term demands of the markets, others have to do with tectonic shifts that aren’t yet obvious but may be far more consequential in the long run. The LMS continues to have a future, and it’s a surprisingly interesting one in some ways. We’ll have more to say about it in the coming weeks.

    Watch this space.

  • The Moodle/Blackboard Breakup: The Long and the Short of It

    The Moodle/Blackboard Breakup: The Long and the Short of It

    One piece of news we never circled back to after the crush of LMS conference season updates was the ending of the Blackboard’s membership in the Moodle Partner program. To recap, Moodle Pty., the company that runs Moodle development and owns the Moodle trademark, suddenly announced right around BbWorld that it was ending Blackboard’s membership in the Moodle Partner program. Blackboard scrambled to put out a press release saying the decision was mutual. What really happened, and what will happen next?

    The decision was mutual but the messaging wasn’t

    Blackboard’s partnership agreement was up for renewal. From what we can tell, both sides recognized that the discussion around terms wasn’t going well and were starting to contemplate the contingencies in the event that the negotiations failed. Moodle creator Martin Dougiamas made a unilateral decision to call it and announce the break-up, but I think the handwriting was on the wall already.

    The timing was clearly bad for Blackboard from a publicity perspective. Coming at the end of BbWorld, it basically stepped on any announcements they had. That timing could have been deliberate or coincidental; the contract renewal date was set, so the timing was already set to a certain degree. That said, the fact that Moodle did not warn Blackboard or work with them on a joint statement suggests that, at the very least, it was not as amicable a breakup on Moodle’s side as their press release and both sides’ public comments suggest. Which makes the timing of the announcement look a little more likely to have been planned. To be clear, (a) that’s speculation on my part, and (b) I really don’t know enough of the details of the negotiations to piece together exactly what was said or done by whom at what point for what reason. These sorts of negotiations are always complex, and the Blackboard/Moodle relationship was particularly fraught for a number of reasons. But partly for that exact reason, you should take the amicable language on both sides with a grain of salt. Just because somebody doesn’t want to talk trash in public about their ex doesn’t mean that there aren’t…feelings.

    The tick-tock and emotional valences of the break-up are not ultimately consequential. The real question is what happens next for both organizations. On the Blackboard side, Moodle has been an engine of international growth for them. Over the years, they have acquired major Moodle hosting providers in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia and rolled them into their Moodlerooms business (which was itself an acquisition). While the ending of the relationship doesn’t prevent Blackboard from continuing to use the open source Moodle software (or acquire more Moodle service providers), it does raise branding concerns for them in the immediate term and risks of diverging—forking—from that code base in the longer term.

    On the Moodle side, Blackboard’s acquisitions meant that, increasingly, Moodle Pty was financially dependent on Blackboard. Historically speaking, the primary revenue model for the company has been to collect a percentage of Moodle-related revenues from Moodle hosting and support providers in their Moodle Partners program. As Blackboard acquired the larger and more successful Moodle Partners, they also acquired major sources of Moodle Pty’s revenue. At one point, we estimated they accounted for half or more of the company’s total revenues (although Moodle Pty has not publicly disclosed enough financial details for us to make this sort of estimation with a high degree of accuracy).

    So what happens to Moodle and Blackboard post-breakup?

    Short term: Probably not much

    The most immediate short-term consequence for Blackboard is that they have had to change their product name. While they can continue to use the Moodle source code under the terms of its open source GPL license, Moodle Pty owns the trademark to the Moodle name. So Blackboard has had to change its product name to Blackboard Open LMS. They are able to say things like “Blackboard Open LMS is based on Moodle,” but they can’t actually call their product Moodle. That’s a tricky messaging problem for them in a couple of ways. First, a big part of the company’s sales strategy is to convert self-hosted Moodle customers to Blackboard’s SaaS product, arguing that such a move provides customers with an easy migration and all the benefits of Moodle plus the stability of SaaS and the value-added features that Blackboard bundles with the product. With the product name change, the company has taken pains to emphasize that they remain committed to “an easy on-ramp and an easy off-ramp” for Moodle schools through continuing compatibility.

    The second question is the degree to which Blackboard’s customers have specific brand loyalty to open source, Moodle, or Martin Dougiamas’ leadership. Blackboard reports some customer push-back in Southern Europe and little customer concern about the transition elsewhere. We have not yet seen evidence of large-scale concern from Blackboard’s MoodleRooms customers about the transition, although such concerns would be not necessarily be visible to us this quickly if they exist. Blackboard’s Moodle-derived business—I think I can still call it that—is not likely to contract in the short term as a result of the break-up and may or may not experience a slow-down in growth. We don’t see any indicators of a slow-down at this time, but we’ll keep an eye on it. (We’re getting better at detecting switches from self-hosted Moodle to Blackboard Open LMS, so our ability to track Blackboard’s growth on this platform will continue to improve.)

    On Moodle’s side, Moodle Pty. received $6 million AUD in investment money in the recent past. We don’t know how much revenue they company lost with the ending of the Blackboard partnership, but the company has cash to burn if it needs to do so. This leads to at least two significant consequences. First, Moodle Pty’s ability to pay developers to work on the platform is unlikely to be disrupted in the medium term. Second, unless the company changes its disclosure policy, it will be a while before we know how much the loss of Blackboard’s partnership revenue impacted Moodle Pty and how well they have been able to compensate with new sources of revenue. If the company performs well, we may never know. If they are burning cash to cover for the loss of revenue, we won’t see evidence of that until the cash runs out. Which could be a couple of years, even if things are not going particularly well.

    Any visible impacts are likely two or three years out

    For Blackboard, there are a few longer term risks. First, the rebranding and Moodle relationship may complicate their story enough that it creates more of an opening for competitors when self-hosted Moodle schools decide to move to external hosting. Second, there may be a quiet dissatisfaction with the rift among current customers that won’t be visible until contracts come up for renewal. It’s hard to gauge the size of these risks because there wouldn’t be many visible signs of them this early. A lot will depend on the strength of Moodle’s brand versus Blackboard’s marketing and customer service execution. The longer term threat is that it becomes harder for Blackboard to retain Moodle compatibility as their code bases drift apart. That risk has more like more a four- or five-year time horizon, and a lot can happen in that time to change the potential impact of that risk. For Blackboard, the breakup may not have a major impact on their business. We’ll see.

    For Moodle, everything rides on their ability to grow alternative sources of revenue. The company has been touting newer offerings such as MoodleCloud, MoodleNet, LearnMoodle, and MoodleServices. Since we don’t have any external evidence that these are material sources of revenue for the company, and since the company itself has not shared numbers that we can independently evaluate, it’s very hard to tell what their chances are. Moodle has a huge installed base, which gives the project a lot of momentum. But the company that drives most of the core platform development has a business model that has not aged well and is in the process of diversifying into business models that are as yet unproven. I remember enough physics to know that momentum and acceleration are not the same thing. I think the risks are probably greater for Moodle Pty. than they are for Blackboard. But both sides of the equation bear watching.

    This story feels like it’s significant. But at this point, there’s little hard evidence to show whether it will be, and if so, how. We’ll just have to wait and see.

  • Ed Tech Cybersecurity: Suppose they gave a data breach and nobody came

    Ed Tech Cybersecurity: Suppose they gave a data breach and nobody came

    It has now been four weeks since Chegg announced a data breach compromising personal information of up to 40 million users. Cue the crickets because the only coverage in ed tech press thus far is from EdWeek, which focuses on the K-12 market. That’s a shame, because if ed tech companies want a case study to help understand the implications of FBI warnings or the European Union’s new Global Data Privacy Regulations (GDPR), this example from Chegg should be illustrative. The same goes for institutions.

    As a recap, Chegg discovered on September 19th a data breach dating back to April that “an unauthorized party” accessed a data base with access to “a Chegg user’s name, email address, shipping address, Chegg username, and hashed Chegg password” but no financial information or social security numbers. The company has not disclosed, or is unsure of, how many of the 40 million users had their personal information stolen. On September 25th Chegg notified the SEC about the breach, focusing on guidance for company financials. The company then started notifying users and “certain regulatory authorities” on September 26th.

    A “hashed password” is a typical process where the entered password is converted to random-looking cryptographic characters not intended to be decrypted. Subsequent password entries use the same hash again and software compares not the passwords but the hashed passwords to see if they come out identical. While this practice of one-way hashes is well-known, there are far too many web sites (including in ed tech) using plain text, reversible hashes, or poor cryptography schemes.

    This 2016 article in Wired gives a good overview of hashing and data breaches and notes that the level of compromise depends on the details.

    In theory, no one, not a hacker or even the web service itself, should be able to take those hashes and convert them back into passwords. But in practice, some hashing schemes are significantly harder to reverse than others. The collection of 177 million LinkedIn accounts stolen in 2012 that went up for sale on a dark web market last week, for instance, had actually been hashed. But the company used only a simple hashing function called SHA1 without extra protections, allowing almost all the hashed passwords to be trivially cracked. The result is that hackers were able to not only access the passwords, but also try them on other websites, likely leading to Mark Zuckerberg having his Twitter and Pinterest accounts hacked over the weekend.

    By contrast, a breach at the crowdfunding site Patreon last year exposed passwords that had been hashed with a far stronger function called bcrypt, the fact of which likely kept the full cache relatively secure in spite of the breach.

    What is problematic with the Chegg data breach is that no further information has been made public and there has yet to be any interest from the broader ed tech press to dig up answers. We have no idea how serious this breach is, and I do not believe that the users with compromised personal information have had any updates since the initial email blast and associated post.

    Less than one week before the Chegg discovery of the data breach, the FBI put out a warning about ed tech and K-12 schools, but the details could easily be applied to higher education.

    The FBI is encouraging public awareness of cyber threat concerns related to K-12 students. The US school systems’ rapid growth of education technologies (EdTech) and widespread collection of student data could have privacy and safety implications if compromised or exploited.

    EdTech can provide services for adaptive, personalized learning experiences, and unique opportunities for student collaboration. Additionally, administrative platforms for tracking academics, disciplinary issues, student information systems, and classroom management programs, are commonly served through EdTech services.

    There is also the GDPR angle described in the EdWeek article.

    One of the first to call attention to the Chegg breach was Hill, an education consultant and market analyst for the company MindWires Consulting who posted a blog and a tweet about the SEC disclosure. [snip]

    One of the more pressing questions is whether the breach will draw the scrutiny of data-privacy regulators, said Hill in an interview. He pointed to the new rules put in place as part of GDPR, the sweeping European data privacy regulation that took effect earlier this year.

    The European policy has come into focus recently with the admission by social media giant Facebook — which has a major presence in schools — that hackers gained access to 50 million of its accounts. European authorities have said they are investigating how many users on the continent were affected, and whether it would trigger GPDR enforcement.

    The Facebook breach was no doubt more problematic, as its breach exposed far more personal information as well as access to Facebook Login, thus compromising third-party platforms. But both data breaches involve consumer-based systems and similar numbers of users. In legal terms, however, GDPR is based on protecting citizens of the European Union. When I asked a Chegg spokesman about the GDPR-based notifications, they replied in general terms.

    We actually do have an office in Berlin. Chegg’s customer base is principally US-based, and the core focus of our business is the United States. We are providing notice to the particular regulatory agencies, in the US and Internationally- including Europe.

    GDPR has been criticized as creating impossible to fully comply requirements, and there are two aspects worth covering here – Supervisory Authority and Notification of Data Breach. This article gives a good summary and whom to notify – the Supervisory Authority.

    For most companies, choosing a GDPR Lead Supervisory Authority is a straightforward decision. A company based in Paris, France would appoint the supervisory authority in France as the lead supervisory authority. A UK-based company would choose the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO), which is the supervisory authority for the UK.

    For companies that operate in multiple EU member states, the lead supervisory authority would normally be the supervisory authority in the country where the company’s headquarters is or where its main business location is in the EU. More specifically, it would be the Supervisory Authority in the country where the final decisions are made about data collection and processing.

    A U.S. company that does not have a base in an EU member state has a problem. If it does not have a base in an EU member state where data procession decisions are made, it will not benefit from the one-stop-shop mechanism. Even if a company has a representative in an EU member state, that does not trigger the one-stop-shop mechanism.

    The company must therefore deal with the supervisory authority in every member state where the company is active, through its local representative.

    In Chegg’s case, presumably the Berlin office allows them to use the one-stop mechanism of a lead authority. But smaller ed tech companies may not have this benefit and require interactions with many different country regulators ((Genius system – make the process much more difficult for smaller companies.)).

    What about notification requirements in the case of a data breach? The relevant section is Article 33 of GDPR where Chegg would be a “controller” [emphasis added].

    • In the case of a personal data breach, the controller shall without undue delay and, where feasible, not later than 72 hours after having become aware of it, notify the personal data breach to the supervisory authority competent in accordance with Article 55, unless the personal data breach is unlikely to result in a risk to the rights and freedoms of natural persons. 2Where the notification to the supervisory authority is not made within 72 hours, it shall be accompanied by reasons for the delay.
    • The processor shall notify the controller without undue delay after becoming aware of a personal data breach.
    • The notification referred to in paragraph 1 shall at least:
      1. describe the nature of the personal data breach including where possible, the categories and approximate number of data subjects concerned and the categories and approximate number of personal data records concerned;
      2. communicate the name and contact details of the data protection officer or other contact point where more information can be obtained;
      3. describe the likely consequences of the personal data breach;
      4. describe the measures taken or proposed to be taken by the controller to address the personal data breach, including, where appropriate, measures to mitigate its possible adverse effects.

    In this case, Chegg would have had to notify its Lead Supervisory Authority by September 22 the details described above. According to the SEC form, initial notifications to regulators beyond the SEC started September 26.

    Would there be a lawsuit based on this delayed notification? We don’t know yet, but one important distinction is that in the EU the process must go through the official data regulators. Article 77 of GDPR specifies these actions.

    Without prejudice to any other administrative or judicial remedy, every data subject shall have the right to lodge a complaint with a supervisory authority, in particular in the Member State of his or her habitual residence, place of work or place of the alleged infringement if the data subject considers that the processing of personal data relating to him or her infringes this Regulation.

    In other words, a country regulator must decide whether it wants to pursue action against Chegg. In the US, similar complaints or lawsuits can be filed by individuals against the company with a data breach. The intention of GDPR is to go after the big tech companies – Google, Facebook, etc – and Chegg may be too low-profile to warrant close attention. Despite the large numbers involved of up to 40 million users, it is unknown how many are EU citizens.

    Will there be further fallout for Chegg than the initial flurry of financial news that helped drive down its stock price by 21 percent since the notification? It looks like the biggest issue is job security for US lawyers, as there have been at least four dozen lawsuits seeking class-action status filed with the general theme of the company not securing its systems properly or not notifying investors of the risks of data security. I have no idea if any of these will stick ((These types of lawsuits come out of the woodworks when stock prices drop.)), but Chegg’s initial focus on SEC and financial notifications seems well-placed.

    In the meantime, other ed tech companies would do well to view this data breach as a case study and opportunity to figure out how secure their systems are, and if they would be able to comply with GDPR regulations (or if they would be required to do so). More broadly, how many companies collecting personal information use adequate protection of hashed passwords? How many know what to do in the case of a data breach? Now is the time to find out and take action, before the next event occurs.

    I will repeat my call that Chegg needs to more fully disclose the details of the incident to the general public. There has been no new information shared by Chegg based on its investigation. I would add that this subject should get more attention from ed tech press.

    Update: Based on interaction with executive director of OpsecEdu, the description of common password security approaches has been changed to not state that most use one-way hashing.

  • North American Higher Ed LMS Market Share by Enrollments: A consolidating market

    North American Higher Ed LMS Market Share by Enrollments: A consolidating market

    We have published market share data measured by total institutional enrollment instead of institutional count in several posts at e-Literate over the years, within the twice-annual reports of our LMS Market Analysis service, and for several of our premium subscribers of the same service. In July of this year we reported that Canvas had overtaken Blackboard as the market leader in US higher education in terms of institutional adoptions as well as scaled by enrollment. These last two posts got a fair amount of media and vendor attention.

    What we have realized, however, is that we have not made this information on market share by enrollment easy to access in one place. LMS company revenue tends to be based on the total enrollment of adopting institutions, thus this enrollment-based measure provides a more direct connection to company finances. Given the increased importance of LMS provider business models and revenue to the future trends of the market, we are sharing the information more broadly.

    In this view below we share North American (US and Canada combined) total enrollment for LMSs that are primary – that is, available for the entire institution. Total enrollment in this case means the institutional student count, but it does not imply that all students at that institution actually have courses using the LMS (see comment below from John Fritz). It is important to note that during an LMS transition there is often a period of time (6 – 18 months) where two systems overlap, with both available to the school. Therefore the total market share enrollments will be somewhat higher than actual total enrollments, as a subset of LMS-transitioning institutions will be counted twice.

    You can download a spreadsheet version here.

    LMS Market Share by Enrollment NA HE

    Some notes on the data worth considering:

    • Canvas has not just surpassed Blackboard Learn in this updated view, 35% to 33% – it has also expanded its lead as the most-adopted LMS in North American higher ed markets (while Moodle has clear lead worldwide in total installed base).
    • D2L Brightspace has been in third place for NA HE markets since 2016 when viewing by enrollments.
    • Moodle is fourth and has been dropping in recent years.
    • The top view of total enrollments adds in the effect of changing enrollments – both at a national level and an institutional level.
    • In the past five years, the LMS Market for North American higher ed has become increasingly dominated by “the Big Four” (Instructure Canvas, Blackboard Learn, D2L Brightspace, Moodle) for institution-wide adoptions; the aggregate market share of year’s top four systems moving from 80% to 95% in past five years.

    This last point deserves more analysis. There are other systems gaining new institutional clients (think Schoology here, or think CBE-specific platforms like Motivis), but they are mostly picking up either small schools or being adopted for specific programs and not for the entire institution.

    Consolidation of NA HE LMS Market

    Expect more coverage as we enter ed tech fall conference season.

    Update 8/3: Added sentence in third paragraph to clarify usage of total enrollment terminology.

  • Chegg Data Breach May Affect Up To 40 Million Users

    Chegg Data Breach May Affect Up To 40 Million Users

    Chegg – a publicly-traded provider of digital textbooks, tutoring and study guides – notified the SEC yesterday that they learned a week ago about a security breach dating back to April 2018. In their 8-K filing:

    On September 19, 2018, Chegg learned that on or around April 29, 2018, an unauthorized party gained access to a Company database that hosts user data for chegg.com and certain of the Company’s family of brands such as EasyBib. The Company understands that the information that may have been obtained could include a Chegg user’s name, email address, shipping address, Chegg username, and hashed Chegg password. The investigation into the incident, which is supported by third-party forensics, is ongoing. To date, the Company understands that no social security numbers or financial information such as users’ credit card numbers or bank account information were obtained. The Company expects to start notifying approximately 40 million active and inactive registered users and certain regulatory authorities on September 26, 2018.

    Chegg takes the security of its users’ information seriously and will be initiating a password reset process for all user accounts.

    Note that the company learned of the data breach a week ago, and the notifications appear to be centered on calming investors (their stock price dropped 12% based on the news). The only way that I discovered this news was through financial market notifications and their 8-K filing:

    In connection with the disclosure of the security incident discussed in Item 8.01 below, on September 25, 2018, Chegg, Inc. (the “Company” or “Chegg”) reaffirmed its previous guidance for the third quarter of 2018 as most recently stated in the press release issued on July 30, 2018 and furnished as an exhibit to a Current Report on Form 8-K filed that day with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) (the “July Guidance”). Chegg also announced that it currently believes that the security incident discussed in Item 8.01 below will not have a material impact on its financial results for the full year ending December 31, 2018.

    According to their filing, Chegg is notifying current and former users starting today, but as yet there has been no public notification. I do not know why it took the company a full week for notifications to begin, but I suspect it is due to internal investigations to fully understand the nature of the breach – what was compromised and what was not.

    For reference, California privacy laws do not stipulate exactly how quickly companies must notify users of a data breach. The law stipulates:

    The disclosure shall be made in the most expedient time possible and without unreasonable delay, consistent with the legitimate needs of law enforcement, as provided in subdivision (c) [ed. section on cooperation with law enforcement], or any measures necessary to determine the scope of the breach and restore the reasonable integrity of the data system.>

    What is missing thus far is useful information for the public. What happened, how did this happen, what steps Chegg has taken to mitigate the risk, whether there remains a security vulnerability. I suspect it was wise to only disclose this breach to public equity markets based on guidance for financial losses, and not to the general public.

    Chegg needs to more fully disclose the details of the incident to the general public, and do this very soon.

    Update 1: I have modified post title to more accurately reflect that it is unknown how many user accounts were accessed. Here is a ZDNet article with additional descriptions.

    Update 2: I contacted Chegg for additional information. Their spokesperson said the company “a lot of obligations of how and when disclosures of non-public information can be made”, and that a public post is now available with further descriptions.

    We recently discovered that some user account data from Chegg.com, or of one of its family of student services, may have been acquired by an unauthorized party. Our understanding is that the data that may have been obtained could include names, email addresses, shipping addresses, Chegg usernames, and hashed Chegg passwords. Our current understanding is that no financial information such as credit card numbers, bank account information, or social security numbers was obtained. As a result, we are prompting users to change their Chegg.com or Chegg affiliate passwords upon login.

    [snip]
    For more information, please review the FAQs below.

    FAQ:

    1. What happened?
      • We recently discovered that some user account data from Chegg.com, or of one of its family of student services, may have been acquired by an unauthorized party.
      • While our investigation into this matter continues, we are letting users know what we know now because we value our relationship with them.
      • An investigation, supported by a third-party forensics firm, was commenced.
    2. What information was affected?
      • Our understanding is that the names, email addresses, shipping addresses, Chegg usernames, and hashed Chegg passwords of some of our users may have been obtained as a result of this incident.
      • Our current understanding also is that no financial information such as credit card numbers, bank account information, or social security numbers was obtained.

    There are six additional questions addressed in the FAQ section. This post is a good step forward in transparency, although I believe it was a mistake not to have this available at the same time as notifications to the SEC and financial markets. We will update as we get new information.

  • Can Pearson Sell Efficacy?

    Can Pearson Sell Efficacy?

    Almost five years ago, when Pearson announced that the company would reorganize itself around efficacy, I was impressed by the degree to which the company was going “all in” on a very much unproven strategy. It was incredibly bold. I wrote,

    In all my years of covering the ed tech industry, I have never seen a company be so explicit and detailed about their strategy as Pearson is being now with their efficacy publications. Yes, there is plenty of marketing speak here. But there is also quite a bit about what they are actually doing as a company internally—details about pilots and quality reviews and hiring processes and M&A criteria. These are the gears that make a company go. The changes that Pearson is making in these areas are the best clues we can possibly have as to what the company really means when they say that they want efficacy to be at the core of their business going forward. And they have published this information for all the world to see.

    These now-public details suggest a hugely ambitious change effort within the company. Phil and I have consulted for a few textbook publishers, including Pearson, and I worked for Cengage for a year and a half. We have a pretty good idea of the magnitude of the change management challenges these companies face right now and the strategies that various publishers are bringing to bear in an effort to meet them. I can say with absolute conviction that what Pearson has announced is no half-hearted attempt or PR window dressing, and I can say with equal conviction that what they are attempting will be enormously difficult to pull off. They are not screwing around. Whatever happens going forward, Pearson is likely to be a business school case study for the ages.

    Pearson bet the farm on efficacy. As far as I can tell, they are still betting the farm on efficacy. If anything, they have doubled down in the five years since I wrote those words.

    There are a number of reasons why this bet is remarkable, not least of which is that we still don’t know if a curricular materials company can be successful in the long run by promoting efficacy as a primary value proposition. In addition to all the hard work that Pearson needs to do to credibly claim that their products support some sensible definition of efficacy, they also have to tackle the equally hard challenge of convincing faculty that the company’s vision of efficacy, as delivered in their products, is a good reason to pick their product instead of the (many) alternatives. They have an enormous customer communications challenge. That was one of the main points of my original 7,000-word post on the company’s strategy.

    Which is why I find it mystifying to see an article in Forbes which seems almost designed to distract from or even directly undermine the efficacy message that the company has been carefully honing over the last half a decade. The article, “How 174 Year Old Pearson Is Developing The Netflix Of Education” is a longish interview with Albert Hitchcock, Pearson’s Chief Operating Officer and Chief Technology Officer. The jarring title refers back to Mr. Hitchcock’s previous use of the analogy in an interview entitled ‘Pearson aims to become the ‘Netflix’ of education.‘ In responding to that first piece two years ago, I wrote,

    Given his profile on LinkedIn, Mr. Hitchcock appears to be new to education except for whatever memories he has of his own days as a student. Let me offer a couple of suggestions on how to get along in education for him and the many vendor employees who are in a similar situation:

    1. Never, ever, say that you want your company to be the Uber of education, the Airbnb of education, the Pokemon GO of education, or the [insert name of tech darling] of education unless you really enjoy being a recluse (or you are secretly a double agent for your employer’s direct competitor).
    2. If you absolutely must say something like the above, then do not say you are the Netflix of education. Honestly, Netflix isn’t even great at being the Netflix of movies. The last time they recommended a movie that I actually wanted to watch was…uh…never.

    There is a recurring cultural fantasy that “solving” the education “problem” consists of creating a customized playlist of little content bits. So really, more like the Spotify of education, if you want to play that game. This idea enrages educators because it trivializes what they do. Nobody who has taught believes that proper sequencing of content chunks is the hard part. (For a fully fleshed out prior example—or a “worked example” in teaching parlance—of how the sorts of comments Mr. Hitchcock have made typically play out in educational corporate branding over time, see my post-mortem on Udacity’s pivot away from higher education.)

    In the more recent Forbes piece, the interviewer picks up on the Netflix analogy and asks Mr. Hitchcock about it. Not only does Mr. Hitchcock choose not to disavow the analogy; he expands on it by adding Spotify and Amazon. I’ll parse his exact language later in this post in the interest of fairness, but my point from the previous post stands. Regardless of the intention behind the analogies, they are toxic and should be avoided at all costs. This is doubly true for Pearson because, as I will explain in the next section of this post, they also run directly counter to the more credible, more refined articulation of the efficacy strategy that the company is promoting in 2018.

    The fact that the analogies did make it into an interview with a mainstream publication like Forbes raises some larger questions. Is Pearson less committed to efficacy than I have believed them to be? Is there poor alignment in the company around what efficacy means? Are they just really bad at messaging? Did Mr. Hitchcock’s intent somehow get represented unfairly by a few poorly chosen words that were then taken out of context by an editor?

    To find out the answers to these questions, I spoke with Pearson’s President of Global Product Tim Bozik, SVP of Efficacy and Research Kate Edwards, and CEO John Fallon. Here’s the short version of what I have concluded, based on those interviews and other evidence:

    1. I am mostly still convinced that Pearson is fully committed to efficacy as a primary value proposition for all of their products and services going forward.
    2. I do believe that the Forbes interviewer was bad, as were some of the editorial choices made by the publication. (Particularly the headline.)
    3.  Even granting the benefit of the doubt on the previous point, Mr. Hitchcock made a number of very bad choices that no executive in his position should make and that cannot be explained away by blaming the editor or the interviewer.
    4. Mr. Bozik and Ms. Edwards seemed fully aligned on what Pearson means by efficacy, how to talk about it, and how central it is to the company. Within the rules that they were bound to follow in an on-the-record interview through formal PR channels, they did the best job they could to articulate the most attractive and compelling version of Pearson’s efficacy strategy while diplomatically establishing some distance from Mr. Hitchcock’s questionable analogies.
    5. Mr. Fallon chose a different path. He went to some lengths to justify or explain away the analogies. In doing so, he re-opened questions that Ms. Edwards and Mr. Bozik had all but closed for me regarding whether Pearson has the sensitivity and message discipline they will need to earn their customers’ trust regarding their commitment to efficacy.

    For the long version, read on.

    But before you do, you should be aware of our conflicts of interest, which I’m going to describe in more than the usual detail. Pearson is a current sponsor of the Empirical Educator Project. In addition, they have periodically engaged us in consulting projects over the years (although we do not have any current engagements with them.) Some of these projects have involved their efficacy work, either directly or indirectly. We received prior permission from the company to blog publicly about the first such engagement. Most recently, we were hired to review the company’s public  efficacy reports, provide the kind of feedback that we might publish in a blog post, and offer suggestions for improving the work. You can judge for yourself whether these engagements make us more or less trustworthy in our assessments.

    Netflix and Spotify analogies are fundamentally incompatible with Pearson’s view of efficacy

    In order to understand why these analogies are particularly bad for Pearson’s efficacy effort, it’s important to understand how the company’s position on efficacy has evolved. In that original post five years ago, I wrote,

    Let’s think some more about the analogy to efficacy in health care. Suppose Pfizer declared that they were going to define the standards by which efficacy in medicine would be measured. They would conduct internal research, cross-reference it with external research, come up with a rating system for the research, and define what it means for medicines to be effective. They would then apply those standards to their own medicines. And, after all is said and done, they would share their system with physicians and university researchers in the hopes that the medical community might be reassured about the quality of Pfizer’s products and maybe even contribute some ideas to the framework around the edges. How confident would we be that what Pfizer delivers would consistently be in the objective best interest of improving health? This is not entirely hypothetical; much of the drug research that happens today is sponsored by drug companies. Unsurprisingly, this state of affairs is viewed by many as deeply problematic, to say the least. It certainly doesn’t help the brand value of Pfizer. But at least much of that medical research is conducted by physicians and academic researchers and is subject to the scientific peer review process. Pearson is creating their framework largely on their own, selectively inviting in external participants here and there.

    I get why they had to do this. The company is bleeding money, it will take some time to stop the flow of blood, and they couldn’t wait to build consensus before they tied the tourniquet. But it is not going to get them where they want to go. While there are obvious concerns about ethics and about whether such a company-driven approach is fundamentally compatible with progress on complex questions such as defining what an education is good for and how we know when we have achieved these ends, I want to focus on the business aspects of the problem. I want to focus on why continuing down this path is bad for Pearson. Or rather, why driving hard toward becoming facilitators rather than owners of efficacy research is good for Pearson.

    I could give a number of examples, but one should hopefully suffice. In preparing to write this post, I asked Annie Cellini, Pearson’s Senior Vice President of Marketing and Strategy, whether Pearson intends to share the completed rubrics for their products with customers and prospects. This was her reply:

    Though we don’t plan to share product efficacy scoring as part of our sales and marketing materials per se, where a product has a strong research and evidence base, we will communicate that to customers. It’s also worth saying that the most important output of an efficacy review isn’t a rubric score. We believe that much of a review’s value comes from the conversations that it prompts teams to have, which focus on the path forward, and on how to improve the product or service from a learner perspective. A poor score does not mean the product doesn’t work well. It often means that teams are not collecting the type of data needed in order to get a sufficiently robust view of the product’s efficacy, or they may not have a sufficiently practical plan to continuously enhance the product based on data. Their improvement plan will encourage them to start gathering new information, to start working in new ways, and to make sure that their customers are aligned with the outcomes they plan to achieve and understand their role in the product’s path to efficacy.

    This is a perfectly sensible and responsible reply if you believe that the main value of the Efficacy Framework to customers is in the data that results from the work a product team does after an efficacy review. But remember, the magic of the rubric is in the norming conversations. Annie’s reply suggests that Pearson understands this in terms of the Pearson-internal processes but not yet in terms of their relationships with their customers. If Pearson were to say to faculty, “Here’s what we think we know about the efficacy of this product, here’s what we don’t know yet, and here is how we are thinking about the question,” they might get a number of responses. Maybe they would get, “Oh, well here’s how I know that it’s effective with my class.” Or “The reason that you don’t have a good answer on effectiveness yet is that your rubric doesn’t provide a way to capture the educational value that your product delivers for my students.” Or “I don’t use this product because it has direct educational effectiveness. It frees me up from some grunt work so that I can conduct activities with the class that have educational impact.” Most of all, if you’re John Fallon, you really want faculty to say to their sales reps, “Huh. I never thought about the product in quite those terms, and it makes me think a little differently about how I might use it going forward. What can you tell me about the effectiveness of this other product that I’m thinking about using, at least as Pearson sees it?” And you really want your sales reps to run back to the product teams, hair on fire, saying “Quick! Tell me everything you know about the effectiveness of this product!”

    Pearson won’t get that conversation by just publishing end results of their internal analysis when they have them, which means that they have a high risk of failing to align their products with the needs and desires of their market if they think about the relationship between their framework and their customers in that way. I don’t think Pearson fully gets that yet. While the authors of The Incomplete Guide frequently invoke terms like “community” and “leaders” in the document, they generally seem to mean the community and leaders within Pearson. The company’s efforts to reach out to the academic community for feedback and participation are generally framed as an extension of their efforts rather than the very heart of them. And yet, Pearson’s brightest possible future is not as a company that designs educationally effective products, but as one that facilitates conversation and research about efficacy within the broader academic community (and in so doing is able to design products that their customers agree are effective for important educational goals as determined by meaningful measures).

    The Netflix, Spotify and, to a lesser extent, Amazon analogies all speak directly to the question of whether Pearson intends to define efficacy for educators or with educators. Netflix famously just deleted—not just removed, but deleted—all user reviews and switched from a five-star review system to a simple “thumbs-up/thumbs-down.” The subhead on the Vanity Fair article I linked to in the previous sentence is “A step closer to a wholly ‘because you watched’ world.” The implication is that Netflix trusts the algorithm more than the humans to evaluate quality. Equally famously, Apple CEO Tim Cook has highlighted the company’s decision to use human curators of music, in contrast to Spotify’s decision to rely completely on its algorithms:

    We worry about the humanity being drained out of music, about it becoming a bits-and-bytes kind of world instead of the art and craft.

    Whenever Pearson makes any mention of Netflix or Spotify—or Amazon, which is known for its recommendation engine as well—the company risks appearing to come down on the side of the algorithm over the human. Educators worry about the humanity being drained out of teaching, about it becoming a bits-and-bytes kind of world instead of the art and craft. In 2018, is that where Pearson has come down on their definition of efficacy?

    Not as far as I can tell.

    Pearson, in fact, recently made a high-profile hire away from Intel of artificial intelligence expert Milena Marinova. Here’s how she described her work in an interview with The Bookseller:

    Right now, I am working on developing human-centric AI – this means making the learning experience better for students and teachers; enabling lifelong learning through more accessible and affordable products; and building better products and solutions using new technology.

    What does “human-centric AI” mean in this context? Mr. Bozik commented on this directly in our interview. He described it as an effort to help teachers and students get a better view into their own learning. He said the company is placing a strong emphasis on early intervention and formative assessment, and providing “feedback and insights.” He also said,

    Pearson strives for respect for both the ambition and the humility of [its efficacy strategy]. The ambition is that efficacy means outcomes. Full stop. It’s the potential to help people live better lives. That is our purpose. The humility part is that it’s hard. We don’t underestimate the difficulty of it. It starts with having an empathy for teachers and learners, rather than just teaching and learning.

    For Ms. Edwards’ perspective, while I could quote her from my interview, I think you’ll get a better sense of her from her lightning talk at the Empirical Educator Project summit in February:

    Here’s the part of her talk that jumps out as relevant to the question at hand:

    How do we maximize the uniquely human attributes that educators—faculty—bring to the table, and combine them with all the productivity enhancements that come from things like data science, AI, and the improvements we’re seeing as the result of technology. All with the emphasis on helping students achieve outcomes that really matter to them.

    Ms. Edwards then goes on to talk about the resources that Pearson either has already contributed or will contribute under a Creative Commons license. These include a set of rubrics for evaluating curricular materials (or course designs) based on a set of academically accepted and empirically verified learning science principles and a set of tools for instructors that want to conduct action research. It’s these contributions, these public actions, that speak the most persuasively to Phil and me when we evaluate a company’s intent. (For more on Ms. Edwards’ views and her characterization of Pearson’s efficacy work, you can read her recent posts on LinkedIn.)

    Taken together with Pearson’s other work, such as their first publicly released efficacy reports on their products, the message conveyed by the actual work that I have seen from the company is clear: They aspire to define efficacy with educators and students. As I wrote earlier in this post, I have had opportunities to view this work from inside and out over the past five years. I honestly believe that the people working on the efficacy and product teams—Ms. Edwards’ and Mr. Bozik’s teams, respectively—buy into that goal and are actively working toward it.

    Pearson’s intent doesn’t matter if nobody believes them

    The problem is that intent of the people working at the company, level of commitment to that intent by the CEO and the small circle of people that make decisions within a company, and customer perception of intent are three different things. When I published my post the first time Mr. Hitchcock was quoted talking about Netflix, some of the people who worked on product design and efficacy at Pearson were quite angry with me. They felt that I had misrepresented Pearson’s position, because—and this is key—they also felt that Mr. Hitchcock’s comments were not representative of Pearson’s position. I replied that I wasn’t sure there was any way to determine what Pearson’s position is. Mr. Hitchcock is quite senior. He reports directly to the CEO. I could ask other executives for their own responses, but they wouldn’t be any more authoritative than Mr. Hitchcock’s. Unless I could speak directly to Mr. Fallon—which I didn’t believe would be possible at the time—I had no way of definitively determining which beliefs the elusive entity known as “Pearson” holds.

    What I did know is how academia would receive the phrase “the Netflix of Education.” I knew this because Mr. Hitchcock was not the first person to use it, as was acknowledged by a Pearson employee in a 2016 EdSurge story entitled “Why We Don’t Need a ‘Netflix for Education.’” Its toxicity was widely known inside Pearson, at least within the product and efficacy groups.

    Last month, five years into the massive effort to align the company around efficacy, the analogy shows up again, expanded upon, by the same senior executive. And this time, it’s not published in a specialty IT outlet. It’s in Forbes. Interviews at that level do not happen at big companies without being vetted. If you’re a senior executive at a company like Pearson, you go through formal media training, and you are often accompanied on interviews by a PR professional. These tend to be usually serious, orchestrated affairs. There are rules. How was it possible that this interview was approved, went through the proper channels, and went off the rails? Do Pearson executives see it as being as far off-message as I do? Is there conflict or confusion about the efficacy strategy at the highest levels of the organization that isn’t obvious to the casual observer?

    Let’s take a look at what Mr. Hitchcock actually said and then turn to the executive on-the-record reactions to it.

    Mr. Hitchcock’s comments were bad and cannot be explained away by bad editing

    Here’s the part of the article where Netflix came up:

    High: You described the vision of delivering Pearson’s education, content, and services through a single platform as creating the “Netflix of Education.” Could you talk about this long-term vision?

    Hitchcock: The intention of the message was to have the viewpoint that we needed to move to a platform type of model where we have all our products, services, and capabilities that we deliver to our customers in a single ecosystem. A great deal has been written around this model at Pearson, and that is especially relevant as our company grew through acquisitions. Ours is a diverse business that is over 170 years old and has had many different types of companies under the umbrella of Pearson for many years. Recently, education has become the primary focus, but that complexity that was acquired over those decades was inherent within the company. The way we serve our customers had been across many different brands and many different types of digital products. We sell millions of books and material on the digital side. We had to figure out how to transform that to be a consistent, high-quality branding experience and one that is comparable to the best customer experiences out there.

    Silicon Valley companies create the benchmark for the digital experience by being platform businesses. Our vision is to leverage the opportunity to transform along similar lines in terms of having a single platform globally that could deliver all our educational content and courseware. Furthermore, this would allow us to move into a more personalized experience that delivers high-quality education outcomes. It would be game-changing for not only Pearson, but for the entire industry if we could create that single platform, similar to Netflix, Spotify, and Amazon. [Emphasis added.] This platform would be highly scalable, global in nature, high-quality, and a platform that could deliver all our experiences around the world to millions of learners. We are currently working to deliver high-quality courses to students that are proven to help them learn and progress their lives through education and ultimately to their professional lives.

    In the interest of fairness, I’ll enumerate the extenuating circumstances:

    • The interviewer, not Mr. Hitchcock, brought up Netflix. And a Forbes editor, not Mr. Hitchcock, chose to feature Netflix in the headline.
    • Mr. Hitchcock seems to be making a point about the need to support a seamless, end-to-end, born-digital customer experience for students. Further, he is absolutely correct that Pearson, like all of the larger textbook publishers, grew through acquisition and have had a patchwork of many different systems that were never designed to work together. These are entirely valid and important issues for Pearson’s CTO and COO to discuss.
    • He does not take the last, most toxic step (this time) of describing Pearson as the “Netflix of education.” In fact, he seems to make a modest effort to narrow the scope of the analogy in response to the question: “The intention of the message was to have the viewpoint….”

    Is it possible that Mr. Hitchcock meant something innocuous and unobjectionable by the analogy? Yes, it is. Is it possible that he honestly tried, in his own way, to communicate the narrowness of his intent with the analogy? Absolutely. Is this a relatively minor and understandable slip that would have been fine if it had just been worded a little more clearly?

    Absolutely not.

    I reiterate: There are no circumstances under which any EdTech executive should ever make an analogy between their company or offering and Netflix or Spotify. Period. Full Stop. It is not a mistake that anyone in Mr. Hitchcock’s position should ever make. In fact, if the analogy is brought up by an interviewer, as it was in this case, the first words out of the executive’s response should be “To be clear, Pearson does not aspire to be the Netflix of education.” That goes doubly for Mr. Hitchcock because he actually said that once before and should have taken the opportunity to correct the record, and trebly because the analogy can easily be interpreted as being in direct contradiction to the company’s bet-the-farm strategy, around which it has taken them five years to arrive at their current calibration in message and in action.

    Nor can this easily be chocked up to bad editing. In fact, I question whether there was any significant editing whatsoever. This isn’t one of those tightly written articles in the reporter’s own voice with a one- or two-sentence quote sprinkled in here or there. This is an interview, with short questions followed by long answers that do not appear to be heavily edited for clarity or brevity.

    Even worse, there is a pattern to Mr. Hitchcock’s answers which leave the distinct impression that he, the CTO and COO, is directly responsible for or taking credit for the company’s strategy on teaching and learning. He deftly pairs “I believe” statements with “Pearson has done” statements. It’s very easy to read these statements as Mr. Hitchcock making a causal connection between his beliefs and Pearson’s strategy decisions, which is an impression that is only reinforced by the sycophantic fawning of the interviewer.

    Here’s an example:

    High: How is the process of experimentation around new technologies done? Specifically, as new technologies emerge, how do you encourage your team to begin to experiment and to decipher more of the specifics of how that might be leveraged?

    Hitchcock: […] Overall, I believe it is a combination of aspects. I believe it is about us looking at other ideas that other companies are implementing and seeing where we can bring these concepts together to deliver with the lasting initiatives that we are trying to put in place at Pearson. Then, as we create the single platform, it is about how we start thinking about future R&D and looking forward towards a five-year horizon. It is about seeing the ideas that are coming that we can then bolt into the platform to take us to the next level. More specifically, with AI, we recently hired a senior leader from Intel to help us to bring the entire AI area to focus in terms of what it is going to do for our business. We are building AI and machine learning capabilities and technology in other areas of our company to look at how we transform all aspects of our business using AI and machine learning.

    As I mentioned earlier, it is true that Pearson has hired a senior AI leader from intel. She reports to Mr. Bozik, not Mr. Hitchcock. As President of Global Product, Mr. Bozik’s part of the company makes product design decisions. Mr. Hitchcock’s group is in charge of the software development required to build the product. Both men report directly to Mr. Fallon. Ms. Edwards reports to Mr. Bozik. I don’t know what role Mr. Hitchcock may or may not have played in the new hire, but she definitely does not work for him. That is not at all clear from the interview.

    Here’s another example:

    High: With new technology and innovation, you underscored how the pace of change is faster than ever. Additionally, fostering learning agility for individuals, enterprises, and the people who work within companies has become an important topic especially given the fact that a skill that one has today may be rendered obsolete quickly. How do you work to stay agile and ensure that your organization is doing the same thing?

    Hitchcock: We recently released a report with the Oxford Martin School on the future skills and learning that will be required in the workplace. One of the things we focused on is the aspect of employability and equipping students with the skills that are necessary for future employment and progression within employment. One of the areas I believe is a great opportunity for Pearson is to increasingly serve education, not just through school and formal education, but with employers to transform their workforce. When I connect to our suppliers in the technology industry or my fellow CIOs, one thing that is evident is that nearly every company is faced with the challenge of re-skilling their workforce. This must be done to cope with the demands of the digital revolution that we are going through and the impact of AI, robotics, and other emerging technologies. I believe Pearson is exceptionally well positioned to assist companies in transforming the skills they need to acquire and develop.

    I started out as an engineer, and I became incorporated and then chartered through the Institute of Engineering and Technology. An engineer is no different than a surgeon or an accountant in the sense that the profession demands ongoing development certifications. I believe people want to continue the learning part. Because of this, the opportunity is there for us to become the delivery of lifelong learning for both individuals, education institutions, and government to achieve that. In terms of how we do that internally, at Pearson, there is a big focus on internal employee development.

    We started the Technology Academy shortly after I joined to try and take the technology workforce to the next level in terms of their abilities to equip them with the skills needed for our own journey around the digital change. That is something we will continue to work on and sponsor. We work very closely with institutions and universities to do that as well as our own people. It is a fascinating journey and an incredibly important one for society over the next few years. As society changes, we need to evolve to support the future digital requirements.

    One could be forgiven for assuming, based on this answer, that Pearson’s focus on workplace skills and continuing education was Mr. Hitchcock’s idea, which he arrived at on his own based on his personal biographical experience. But again, Mr. Bozik and Ms. Edwards have far more authority to set this kind of product strategy than Mr. Hitchcock does.

    The net effect of Mr. Hitchcock’s answers is a real problem for Pearson’s brand. What is a typical academic’s nightmare vision of Pearson’s worst possible future? A company whose ideas of education come from its CTO; a man whose previous job was being CIO for a phone company, who thinks that Spotify and Netflix are positive examples of the company that Pearson wants to become and isn’t afraid to say so, repeatedly, in public, despite previous criticism for having done so.

    Also? No mention of efficacy in the article. Anywhere. Not once. Not a word. Not a whisper. In an wide-ranging, open-ended interview about Pearson’s future.

    Pearson’s senior executives tried their best to clean up the mess

    As I mentioned earlier, it’s hard to figure out Pearson’s official position on…well…anything. But Pearson’s official position, or what the organization collectively “thinks,” is a critical question in this case. Given that the interview of somebody who directly reports to the CEO, and who repeated (and arguably expanded upon) an analogy for which the company had taken flak, the question is whether the root of the problem is a failure of corporate communication or a failure of alignment of senior management. This is a high-stakes question. And it’s one that can only be answered definitively by Pearson’s most senior executives.

    Given that, I wanted to get as close to a definitive answer as possible. So I did something that we don’t typically do at e-Literate. I went through proper PR channels. There are a number of reasons we don’t like gathering information this way. One is that the people we are talking to are chaperoned and constrained to hew as closely as possible to the company line. When we approach people informally, they are freer to give us information off the record that provides further validation or nuance to their on-the-record comments. We also generally try to cultivate an approach to our analysis that doesn’t depend on executives continuing to grant us access because we believe that doing so minimizes one kind of pressure on our objectivity.

    But for this particular interview, the constraints of the formal channel were helpful. I could already make pretty good inferences about what Ms. Edwards and Mr. Bozik likely think as individuals. I have gotten to know Ms. Edwards through the Empirical Educator Project and, while I haven’t had much direct exposure to Mr. Bozik, I know quite a bit about the work that has come out of his shop. Further, neither Ms. Edwards nor Mr. Bozik were responsible for—or could be individually responsible for—Mr. Hitchcock’s comments. As his peers, they were not in a position to make statements that were more definitive than his.

    By going through the formal PR channel, I could speak not just to them but through them to the aggregate entity known as “Pearson.” I wanted Mr. Bozik and Ms. Edwards to have the kind of pre-interview huddle orchestrated by PR that occurs when these media requests are made, and I wanted them to be constrained by whatever had been decided in that huddle. By doing so, they could provide answers that are official in a way that they wouldn’t be through less formal channels. Their job in this kind of an interview is to give their best, most honest version of the official company line.

    (By the way, I didn’t ask specifically for these two executives. Part of the experiment was to see who Pearson decided to send. They did not decide to send Mr. Hitchcock. I don’t know if that was purely due to scheduling conflicts or if there were other considerations.)

    Let’s be clear: 90% of my interview with Mr. Bozik and Ms. Edwards was kabuki theater. It was highly ritualized and scripted, with moments of drama that were entirely predictable. That was by design and in no way their fault. They were constrained by the script. I even gave them my basic line of questioning in advance so that the “company” could formulate “its” answers in advance. My questions consisted of four parts:

    1. Describe Pearson’s current view of what “efficacy” means, preferably covering specific examples of efficacy work
    2. Clarify Mr. Hitchcock’s role in the company specifically as it pertains to decision-making around the efficacy initiative and its integration with product design
    3. Review Mr. Hitchcock’s comments in Forbes, in the context of the first two parts of our discussion
    4. Describe Pearson’s official position on whether and in what sense it aspires to be the Netflix, Spotify, or Amazon of education

    The answers to the first two sets of questions were entirely predictable. I wanted to make sure that the official characterizations in the interview were consistent with what I thought I already knew. They were. Mr. Bozik and Ms. Edwards did their job. They faithfully described what I had come to understand as the company’s official positions on those questions. The third and fourth sets of questions were the test. In the third, Mr. Bozik did his best to provide the most charitable honest reading of Mr. Hitchcock’s comments that he could. Again, he did his job.

    When I asked him the fourth question, using more or less the same words as above, he gave the the only correct answer: “Let’s be clear: Pearson does not aspire to be the Netflix or Spotify of education.” Those were the very first words out of his mouth. Yet again, he did his job.

    At that point, I went off-script. I asked him how, given that statement, Mr. Hitchcock could use that analogy for a second time. In the entire ninety-minute interview, this was the only moment when Mr. Bozik seemed to struggle for words. As he should have. Because there is no good answer to that question.

    I had put him in an impossible situation. He was bound by the rules of the kabuki play we were in to give answers that support the company line (and his colleague). He didn’t have the option to say, “Off the record, it was a dumb thing to say.” He had only two options he could take without breaking the rules of engagement: rationalize that which I believe he knew was wrong, or flail around for the best honest answer he could give.

    Mr. Bozik chose to flail. I think better of him for it.

    But their CEO blew it

    At the end of the interview, I found out that Pearson was going to grant my request to speak directly to the company’s CEO. I honestly didn’t expect that request to be met. Pearson is at least several times as large as the next largest ed tech company that we cover. By some measures, they are an order of magnitude larger. So I was surprised and gratified that Mr. Fallon was willing to make time for the conversation.

    And it was an important step for the specific purpose at hand. Mr. Fallon is the only person at Pearson who is empowered to fully repudiate statements by the man who reports directly to him. (This isn’t true at all companies, but it tends to be true at companies as large as Pearson.) Once again, I telegraphed my line of questioning in advance, which was essentially an abbreviated version of the same approach I had used with the previous interview.

    To my surprise, Mr. Fallon jumped ahead to address Mr. Hitchcock’s comments directly. And to more or less defend them. He argued that a key constituency for Pearson is what he called the “Spotify generation,” or “Generation Z,” to which he attributed the following characteristics:

    • They would rather rent or subscribe than own
    • They have a higher expectation of the use of video
    • They probably expect to be able to engage with courses through shorter and more frequent modules
    • They have higher expectations of user experience

    The first characteristic is arguable. Within the world of curricular materials, students are strongly price-sensitive. The primary mechanism that the industry has offered students to get a lower price is rental/subscription. Students have tended to rent or subscribe to curricular materials. Does this mean that they prefer rental or subscription, or just that they are picking the least expensive option? The publishers have a financial interest in promoting rental and subscription, but the evidence of a Spotify-style preference among students seems limited.

    The other three characteristics are probably true and definitely not new. All three are trends that the sector has known about and anticipated for literally decades. Before there was the Spotify or Netflix of education, there was the iTunes playlist of education. And before that, there were re-usable learning objects. All of these points are sufficiently simple, accessible, and well understood already that an analogy to Spotify or Netflix adds nothing useful.

    Mr. Fallon was intent on getting me to admit that there is a reasonable interpretation of the analogy. Which I did. But his defense missed the point entirely. Sure, in principle, with some thought, one can find a non-offensive explanation for an analogy to Spotify or Netflix. But why would you bother to make such an analogy in the first place? And for heaven’s sake, why would you do so in public when you know that your customers are likely to find it offensive by default?

    When I pressed, Mr. Fallon said, “You have never heard or read me say that Pearson wants to be the Netflix or Spotify of education.”

    That is a carefully parsed sentence.

    In fairness, Mr. Fallon then went on to demonstrate to me that he knows exactly what the company’s official and nuanced 2018 version of efficacy is. He can cite it chapter and verse. He can refer to prior public statements that align with that vision, such as his recommendation of World Without Mind, a book about the dangers of romanticizing the power of artificial intelligence. He can speak at length and in detail about the challenges of the lack of agreed-upon frameworks for student data privacy in educational research.

    Which is not surprising. Mr. Fallon is a smart guy. Furthermore, he was the one who bet Pearson’s future on efficacy. It’s probably not an exaggeration to say that he bet his career on it as well. It would be surprising if he didn’t know this stuff inside and out. I’m not sure why he didn’t just say the analogies were bad and do not represent Pearson’s position. Maybe he was just trying to convince me that this was a non-story and not worth writing about. Had he simply led with the points about the challenges of doing efficacy right and refrained from vigorously defending the indefensible, he might have succeeded. Instead, after all of the work involved in making the interviews happen, and all of Pearson’s executive time and PR time spent dealing with me, we’re right back where we started.

    I don’t know Pearson’s official position on the analogy to Netflix or Spotify because Mr. Fallon—the only person at the company who is fully empowered to definitively lay the question to rest—chose to parse words and defend a bad interview rather than just saying, “Yeah, we don’t think about our goals that way and shouldn’t say things like that.” In a few sentences, Mr. Fallon could have closed the door on the one aspect of the Forbes article that I feel compelled to write about. But he didn’t.

    To be clear, the aspect in question isn’t that Mr. Hitchcock said something dumb in public. And it’s not that Mr. Fallon was unwilling to admit on the record that Mr. Hitchcock said something dumb. It’s that Pearson, as represented by the behavior of its CEO, does not appear to fully recognize, or at least fully acknowledge, how delicate and existential a messaging challenge they’ve created by betting their future on efficacy.

    Pearson still communicates like a roll-up, and it can’t afford to do so anymore

    So here’s the real question: Why? Why has Pearson made these unforced errors and then, having made them, compounded them?

    Once again, I can’t know the answer for certain. There often are some organizational politics behind stories like this one. That sort of thing is largely outside of our purview at e-Literate. But the company’s behavior may also be symptomatic of a more systemic problem. As I said earlier, Mr. Hitchcock was absolutely correct in saying that Pearson had a huge technology mess resulting from the fact that it is a “roll-up”—a big company that was created by buying up many small companies. He is also correct in saying that Pearson cannot compete unless they fix that mess by creating one seamless platform. (This is exactly where it is tempting to make analogies to giant internet companies and exactly where EdTech executives should resist that temptation.)

    Pearson has had an analogous problem with their organizational culture (as have all the major textbook publishers). It used to be that every editor had his or her own fiefdom, run relatively independently from the others. This doesn’t work when you all have to deliver content via a common and complex technology platform and when you have to adhere to common standards of learning design. The company has been working on changing that culture for a while, has made some progress, and probably isn’t finished yet.

    But there’s a third leg to this stool which appears to be the one that Pearson is falling over: message discipline (which is icky marketing-speak for “stick to talking about the things you think are important to communicate and don’t go off on tangents about things that are less important”). Even just a few years ago, it would have been impossible to describe the company’s official positions or priorities on much because they were a conglomerate. What priorities do textbook editors share with the publishers of the Financial Times and the people who run Penguin Books? There has always been a certain amount of laissez faire chaos in Pearson’s communications, for understandable reasons. But the company has been selling off all the parts of the business that don’t fit under the common theme of educational impact. I don’t think it would be an exaggeration to say that Pearson aspires to sell only one thing, and that thing is efficacy.

    And yet, they don’t communicate that way. They still communicate like a company with lots of products and lots of messages for lots of different audiences. They have not made this part of their transformation and, based on what what I have seen during the course of writing this story, I’m not confident that they even know that they need to make this change. I have no reason to believe this is the fault of Pearson’s marketing and communications people. It’s much more likely that the problem is the prioritization that is being given to them, or not being given to them, from the top.

    Nobody yet knows if a large education vendor can succeed by making efficacy its main product. But I can say one thing with confidence: They won’t succeed if they don’t sell it. And right now, they are not selling it. They say some things about efficacy, but they say some things about a lot of things, like Netflix, and Spotify, and Microsoft Hololens, and jobs of the future, and probably lots of other stuff that Gmail mercifully filters out for me. If they want their monumental bet to have a real chance of paying off, then they need to be talking about efficacy. Only efficacy. Always efficacy. Everything else needs to be subordinated to a very specific, meticulously crafted, always-being-tuned message about efficacy. Anything that outright clashes or distracts from that message should be mercilessly cut. Any missteps should be immediately and definitively corrected. Saying something stupid in public is a recoverable sin for a company. Failing to relentlessly focus on communicating the complex and somewhat controversial value proposition, upon which you have bet the entire future of your company, to an academic audience that is not terribly inclined to listen to or trust your messages in the first place? That may not be a recoverable mistake.