The transformation of the higher education LMS market continues, and I expect more changes over the next 2 - 3 years. However, it seems time to capture the state of the market based on changes over the past year or two.
I shared the most recent graphic summarizing the market in mid 2011. As with all previous versions, the 2005 - 2009 data points are based on the Campus Computing Project, and therefore is based on US adoption from non-profit institutions. This set of longitudinal data provides an anchor for the summary.
The most significant changes over the past two years include the following.
- The data has been adjusted to include international usage and online programs in order to capture the rise of online programs, including MOOCs, as a driving force in the future market. Keep in mind that there is no consistent data set to capture the entire market, so treat the graphic as telling a story of the market rather than being a chart of precise data. Sources for this summary include a combination of Campus Computing reports, ITC surveys, company press releases, and extrapolations from Blackboard's and Pearson's quarterly earnings. Caveat emptor. Update (12/19): While the data captures a broader set of information than previous US-only data, it is primarily focused on north american institutions.
- There is a new band / category for "homegrown systems" to account for a relatively new trend where organizations, primarily MOOCs for now, are opting to develop their own learning platform rather than adopt a pre-existing LMS.
- Instructure has established itself as not just as a disruptive influence, but as a full-fledged competitor in the market.
- Blackboard changed their strategy, purchased two Moodle service providers (MoodleRooms and NetSpot), and cancelled the end-of-life for the ANGEL LMS.
- Desire2Learn has grown much faster than has been represented by US-only data.
- Pearson eCollege has a much stronger position when considering their market strength in the for-profit sector and with fully online programs.
- The gray band representing pricing has been removed, due to the rise in open source alternatives and change in market pricing pressures.
Update (10/19): Changed Instructure's logo to the new Canvas by Instructure brandining